The bitcoin price is currently too high versus its production cost and relative to its volatility-adjusted comparison to gold, the report said.

Any rebound in cryptocurrency markets in the near term is likely to be tactical in nature and not the beginning of a new long term bullish uptrend, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report last week.

The bank said this was because the price of bitcoin (BTC) is currently too high versus its production cost of $43,000, and relative to its volatility-adjusted comparison to gold, which is $53,000. Bitcoin was trading around $67,220 at publication time.

JPMorgan notes that momentum in bitcoin futures has been weak in recent weeks due to BTC liquidations by creditors of Gemini, Mt. Gox creditors and the German government.

Liquidations are expected to subside this month and the bank continues to look for a rebound in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures positioning into August.

Bitcoin and gold are both expected to benefit from the higher likelihood of a Trump election win, as a “second Trump presidency is seen by some investors as more friendly towards crypto companies and towards crypto regulations, in contrast to the current Biden administration,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

There is speculation that Trump could announce bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at the Nashville Bitcoin conference later this week, and this “could trigger a parabolic rise in bitcoin’s price,” according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

The post Any Near-Term Rebound in Crypto Market Likely to be Temporary: JPMorgan appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The country’s registered crypto investors also surged to 19 million users last month.

Indonesia reported a surge in crypto transactions, reaching Indonesian Rupiah 30 trillion ($1.92 billion) in February, the country’s crypto regulator reported.

The number of registered crypto investors in the country also hit 19 million last month, marking an addition of 170,000 users from January, the Commodity Futures Trading Supervisory Agency (Bappebti) said.

Bappebti attributes this growth to positive market sentiments fueled by bitcoin’s (BTC) price surge and the rally in altcoin, tokens other than bitcoin.

The regulator still aims to match or exceed the transaction volume from 2021, the last bull run, of $51.28 billion, in 2024. Bappebti’s Tirta Karma Senjaya highlighted that, given the downward trend in 2022 and 2023, a 2024 rebound was anticipated, with the upcoming bitcoin halving seen as a key catalyst.

The best way to crypto transaction target would be to remove or reduce taxes on crypto. Currently, crypto transactions are taxed at 0.10% for Income Tax and 0.11% for VAT on users, and exchanges are taxed at 0.02% per transaction for the crypto bourse, depository, and clearing house.

“I’ve previously said that this industry (crypto) is still in its embryonic stage, so imposing heavy taxes might kill the industry,” Tirta stated at a Reku exchange event earlier.

The transfer of crypto oversight to the Financial Services Authority (OJK) in January 2025 could bring about significant changes, possibly reclassifying crypto as securities and revising VAT policies.

The post Indonesia’s Crypto Market Booms as Transactions Hit $1.92B in February appeared first on Crypto Insider.

Digital assets have seen strong gains in the last month due to excitement about the potential approval of bitcoin spot ETFs, but this bullish sentiment may be misplaced, the report said.

Excitement about the potential approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded-funds (ETF) has fueled a strong rally in digital assets over the past month, but the move higher seems overdone, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report last week.

Bullish sentiment has been buoyed by two main arguments, the bank said.

“A spot bitcoin ETF approval would help crypto markets to attract fresh/new capital as the newly-approved ETFs see inflows,” and the “approval would cement a win for the crypto industry and a setback for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) thus making it more likely that going forward the SEC approach towards the crypto industry will soften,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

The bank says it is skeptical of both arguments. Instead of new capital entering the crypto sector, it is more likely that existing capital will move from current bitcoin products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bitcoin futures ETFs and listed mining companies, into the newly approved spot ETFS.

JPMorgan notes that such ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe and have gained “little interest from investors since their inception.”

While the Ripple and Grayscale court rulings represent legal defeats for the SEC, “it is far from clear that the regulatory tightening of the crypto industry will lessen significantly going forward given how unregulated this industry is,” the report said.

“U.S. crypto industry regulations are still pending and we do not believe U.S. lawmakers would shift their stance because of the above two legal cases especially with the memories from the FTX fraud still fresh,” the analysts wrote.

The bitcoin halving, likely in April or May next year, is also cited as another bullish tailwind for crypto markets, the bank said, but this argument is “unconvincing” as the effect of the halving is unpredictable and is already priced in.

The post The Crypto Market Rally Looks Overdone, JPMorgan Says appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The crypto market is plagued by scams. You can find scams on all levels of the crypto market, from fake gurus to scam coins and even fraudulent brokers such as FTX.   Crypto scams are fraudulent activities that aim to take advantage of investors by promising unrealistic returns or manipulating the market in some way. Here are some steps that investors can take to avoid crypto scams in general:

1. Research the investment opportunity: Before investing in any crypto-related opportunity, it is important to research the company or individual offering the investment thoroughly. Look for red flags such as unrealistic promises or a lack of transparency.
2. Check the regulatory environment: In many countries, crypto assets and initial coin offerings (ICOs) are not regulated in the same way as traditional securities. It is important to be aware of the regulatory environment in your country and to understand the risks associated with investing in unregulated assets.
3. Be cautious of unsolicited offers: Be wary of unsolicited offers of investment opportunities, especially if they are accompanied by pressure to act quickly. Scammers may try to rush you into making a decision before you have had a chance to research the opportunity thoroughly.
4. Don’t give out personal or financial information: Be cautious of providing personal or financial information to anyone you don’t know or trust, as this information could be used to defraud you.
5. Don’t let pressure to act quickly influence your decision: Scammers may try to pressure you into making a decision quickly, but it is important to take the time to thoroughly research and consider any investment decision before committing any money.
6. Dont listen to self-proclaimed crypto professionals: Never trust anyone in the crypto industry without doing your own due diligence. A lot of experts are paid to promote scam projects.

Overall, the best way to avoid crypto scams is to be cautious and do your due diligence. Take the time to research investment opportunities and be wary of unrealistic promises or pressure to act quickly. By following these steps, investors can protect themselves from scams and make informed investment decisions.

How to avoid getting scammed by the next FTX

FTX showed how dangerous it can be to invest in crypto.  One of the world’s largest exchanges turned out to be a scam that stole billion of deposited trader funds.  Below we are going to look at how to avoid getting caught in similar scams in the future.  The sad truth is that most crypto exchanges are unregulated, and no one really knows how their finances really look.

The best way to avoid losing your funds is to keep your crypto in your own storage and avoid using centralized exchanges.

Another option is to avoid crypto exchanges completely and instead invest in crypto-based securities on well-established trading platforms that have a long history and strong regulations.  There are a lot of well-established forex trading platforms, such as IC markets, AvaTrade and Pepperstone, that allow you to trade crypto-backed securities.  Platforms such as these are much safer to use than newly established centralized crypto exchanges.

How to choose a good trading platform

Choosing a trading platform can be a daunting task, as there are many factors to consider. Here are some things to consider when choosing a trading platform:

1. Regulation: Make sure the broker is regulated by a reputable regulatory agency, such as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK or the National Futures Association (NFA) in the US. This will ensure that the broker follows certain rules and standards and that your funds are held in a secure manner.
2. Trading costs: Compare the trading costs, including spreads and commissions, at different brokers to ensure you are getting a good deal.
3. Trading platform: Consider the trading platform the broker offers, including its features and user-friendliness. You will be using this platform to execute trades, so it’s important that it meets your needs.
4. Leverage: Be aware of the leverage offered by the broker. Higher leverage can be tempting, as it allows you to trade larger positions with a smaller investment. However, it also increases your risk of losses, so use caution when choosing a broker with high leverage.
5. Customer support: Consider the quality and availability of the broker’s customer support. You will likely have questions or need assistance at some point, so it’s important that the broker has a responsive and helpful support team.
6. Reputation: Do some research and read online reviews to get a sense of the broker’s reputation in the industry. Look for brokers with a good track record and a history of satisfied customers.

Considering these factors, you can make an informed decision when choosing a trading platform.

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Concerns about stablecoins following UST’s collapse have exacerbated declines in digital asset prices, the bank said.

Cryptocurrencies are notably below their peak and mounting concerns about stablecoins following the collapse of terraUSD’s (UST) has led to outflows from the largest stablecoin tether (USDT), Citibank (C) said in a report on Tuesday.

These concerns have most likely compounded declines in crypto markets, the report said.

“Volatility has affected user adoption,” the Wall Street giant said, noting that trading volumes and active addresses spiked around the time of the Luna (LUNC) collapse, which indicate user adoption, but these increases have since reverted to previous levels, or even lower.

According to Citi “tentative evidence suggests a reduction in trading volumes and futures positions but not wholesale declines in investor interest in the space.”

”After Luna’s collapse there were concerns about outflows in USDT, but these have since slowed, the bank said. Some flows went to the more “transparent and centralized” USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin, while others exited the market altogether.

Total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) has fallen in U.S. dollar terms but is stable in terms of ether (ETH), especially when accounting for the value lost in the Anchor protocol following the collapse of UST and LUNC, the note said.

DeFi is an umbrella term used for lending, trading and other financial activities carried out on a blockchain, without traditional intermediaries.

Morgan Stanley (MS) said weakness in crypto markets, the failure of a dollar stablecoin and a reduction in leverage in DeFi was resulting in the “crypto equivalent of quantitative tightening,” in a report Tuesday.

The post Citi Says Crypto Market Volatility Has Affected User Adoption appeared first on Crypto Insider.

Bitcoin and ether lost pivotal support level leading to massive losses for long future traders.

Crypto futures racked up more than $1 billion in liquidations in the past 24 hours amid weak market sentiment and major assets losing pivotal support levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell as much as 8% in the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH), BNB Chain’s BNB, and XRP saw similar losses. Terra’s LUNA fell 50% as its UST stablecoin lost its peg with U.S. dollar, while memecoin dogecoin (DOGE) fared relatively better than the market with just a 6% drop.

Bitcoin temporarily fell under $30,000 in early Asian hours, buoyed by a weak broader market. U.S. technology index Nasdaq ended Monday 4.29% lower, while Asian markets began Tuesday over 1% lower.

Such price action led to this year’s biggest liquidations losses so far. Data shows traders of bitcoin futures lost $346 million, ether futures lost $321 million, while LUNA futures $87 million – a higher-than-usual figure for traders of that asset.

More than $793 million of the total liquidations arose from long traders, or those betting on higher prices, which represented 74% of the futures trades. Some $257 million of that occurred on crypto exchange OKX, followed by Binance at $181 million and FTX at $102 million.

Open interest, or the amount of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled, fell 5.6%, implying traders closed their positions in anticipation of a further drop. As such, the crypto market lost nearly 8% of its overall capitalization in the past 24 hours.

Markets seemed to gradually recover at writing time. Bitcoin traded above $31,800, while ether regained the $2,800 level. An extended recovery would depend on how broader equity markets trade this week, however, as market observers previously pointed out.

The post Crypto Market Crash Leads to $1B in Liquidations, Majors Lose Pivotal Support appeared first on Crypto Insider.

Analysts say as the broader stock market goes, so goes bitcoin when recession hits.

With inflation reaching new highs month after month, and the Federal Reserve taking an increasingly hawkish stance, the U.S. economy is exposed to an elevated risk of upcoming recession.

The COVID-19 recession that began in February 2020 and lasted through April of that year – the most recent in the U.S. – did, however, have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies. It shot bitcoin (BTC) to an all-time high above $28,000 and, more importantly, caused investors and Wall Street firms to start taking the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization seriously.

But if analysts are right, and the U.S. economy is bound to go into another recession as early as next year, the cryptocurrency market could see a very different outcome this time.

Because of bitcoin’s recent strong correlation to U.S. stocks – from the Nasdaq Composite Index to the Standard & Poor’s 500 to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 – the largest cryptocurrency’s performance will likely depend on what the broader markets do, according to some analysts.

“Bitcoin has really bound itself to the Nasdaq in terms of correlation, and if the Fed keeps hiking rates and if the market believes [it is] going to hike rates, recession or not, Nasdaq suffers in the short term,” said Bob Iaccino, chief strategist at Path Trading Partners and co-portfolio manager at Stock Think Tank. “And if this correlation continues, then crypto suffers, too.”

The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has remained elevated since 2020, recently reaching a new high as shown in the chart below.

“During an extended recession I think we will see positive price movement with BTC but the rest of the crypto market would face headwinds as investors continue to move risk off and investors find it harder to raise funds in a tighter lending market,” said Howard Greenberg, a cryptocurrency educator at Prosper Trading Academy.

That strong positive correlation – not just true for bitcoin but some other large crypto assets, like ether (ETH), too – means cryptocurrency returns could suffer from a recession.

“Over the past few years they have become even more correlated to equity markets, and more recently the bond market,” said Joe Haggenmiller, head of markets at XBTO, a crypto trading platform.

“This trend may continue should we go into a recession,” he said. “We expect the major cryptocurrencies to follow the broader market on a short-to-medium term basis, on the upside and downside.”

This would be a very different scenario from what crypto markets saw during the COVID-19 recession. While bitcoin hit an all-time-hime and rose over 50% in 2020, equity markets suffered severe losses during the period between January and March 2020 before bouncing back to normal levels as the Fed stimulated traditional markets with freshly printed money.

A recession that drives down stocks might push the Fed to reverse its hawkish stance and move back to a more accommodative stance. And that could end up being a good thing for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies , according to Iaccino.

What would happen to bitcoin during a recession?

“During an extended recession I think we will see positive price movement with BTC but the rest of the crypto market would face headwinds as investors continue to move risk-off and investors find it harder to raise funds in a tighter lending market,” Greenberg said.

One reason why the correlation between crypto and the equity market is strengthening might be that traders are starting to see stocks as a hedge against inflation, just like bitcoin.

“In inflationary environments, stocks have a distinct advantage over bonds – they’re linked to companies that can adjust pricing – whereas bonds, not so much,” Lawrence Creatura, a fund manager at PRSPCTV Capital LLC, told Bloomberg.

Digital assets might see a drop in prices in the short-term, Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, wrote in a March 28 report. But digital assets create value through network growth and brand loyalty as opposed to equity and debt, which represent a claim on assets.

“Given this backdrop, it’s possible digital assets are the only asset class that a recession wouldn’t negatively impact,” Dorman wrote.

The post Crypto Market’s Direction During a Recession Might Depend on Nasdaq appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The crypto market rallied on Friday to almost fully retrace losses from Thursday’s declines.

Traders betting against a rise in cryptocurrencies suffered losses of up to $143 million in the past 12 hours as global markets recovered from Thursday’s declines.

Bitcoin, ether and other major cryptocurrencies have added close to 10% in 24 hours, almost regaining Wednesday night’s levels. Bitcoin traded near $38,400 at the time of publication, up from Thursday’s low of $34,725.

The rebound, which started U.S. morning hours on Thursday, caused over $184 million worth of losses due to liquidations on crypto-tracked futures in the past 12 hours. Some 73% of traders were ‘short’ the market – or betting against a rise – data from analytics tool Coinglass showed.

Over $52 million of shorts were liquidated on crypto exchange OKX, the most among other crypto futures exchanges, with $23 million stemming from bitcoin-tracked futures alone. Binance followed next, with $25 million in losses from liquidated shorts, with FTX at $16 million.

Overall in the past 12 hours, $89 million of bitcoin-tracked futures were liquidated, $53 million in ether-tracked futures and $5.86 million in futures tracking Terra’s LUNA tokens.

The losses contributed to a 24-hour total-liquidations figure of $405 million. Some 83,000 individual trading accounts suffered losses, with the largest liquidation order occurring on Bitmex for a bitcoin futures trade valued at over $7.95 million.

Rebounds in cryptocurrencies followed similar moves in global markets. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks companies in Asia, rose almost 1% on Friday after dropping 3.1% on Thursday. Benchmark equity indexes rose across Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index adding more than 1%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index closed 1.5% higher Thursday as the country tightened sanctions against Russia.

Some analysts say demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could mount in the coming days because they are seen as liquid instruments.

“Right now, the markets have the highest demand for liquid instruments, making bitcoin slightly less of a risk than altcoins,” Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior financial analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk. “It is likely that a further deterioration in the financial situation could benefit the first cryptocurrency as a means of capital savings for investors from Ukraine, Russia, and some nearby countries.”

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