Shareholders are very likely to turn down the Michael Saylor pitch, Polymarket bettors are predicting.

Michael Saylor’s pitch to Microsoft’s (MSFT) board on whether the software giant should add bitcoin to its balance sheet is unlikely to get shareholder approval, with Polymarket bettors only giving an 10% chance of it being approved.

Each bet comprises a “Yes” and a “No” side. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the U.S. dollar, if the prediction comes true, and zero if not.

In October, a proposal from the National Center for Public Policy Research urged Microsoft to add bitcoin to its balance sheet as a diversification investment, but the board recommended shareholders vote against it, arguing that crypto lacked the stability to be part of the treasury of a company the size of MSFT.

Saylor, the executive chairman of Microstrategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock rocket up 455% year-to-date, recently pitched Microsoft’s board on this issue, arguing bitcoin could act as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, potentially boosting Microsoft’s $3.2 trillion market cap to over $8 trillion.

Microsoft’s current treasury strategy, Saylor says, is weakening the company, as it has “surrendered” $200 billion in capital over five years through dividends and buybacks, which he argued could have been invested in Bitcoin, now up over 1,200% in that period.

One Polymarket bettor argued that there wasn’t really a point for institutional investors to want Microsoft to add bitcoin to its balance sheet, because there are already so many options out there to get bitcoin exposure – which wasn’t the case when Microstrategy originally bought.

“They’re just making their value assessment more difficult by muddying up safe investments (MFST) with volatile ones (BTC),” trader Oxymirin wrote, who holds a position on the ‘no’ side worth $2000.

Another bettor, who holds the opposite side of the trade, argued that given Microsoft’s comfortable cash position, the company might buy a small amount of BTC.

“I think a small amount of funds will be allocated for testing. After all, shareholders’ rights must be taken into consideration. Microsoft’s cash position is sufficient. Microsoft offers some options for buying Bitcoin,” a trader that goes by the handle of titanlin wrote.

Microsoft is scheduled to hold its next shareholder meeting on December 10, where the motion will be voted on.

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According to BCA Research analysis of fractal patterns, the bitcoin price might climb above $200,000.

While bitcoin (BTC) is still hovering below the six-figure mark, one firm is confidently predicting the price could more than double from the current market rate of $90,000.

Yes, you read that right. According to BCA Research, bitcoin’s ultimate target could be more than $200,000.

The prediction is based on bitcoin’s “260-day fractal dimension complexity,” a measure of the patterns that appear in bitcoin’s price changes. The metric remains well above 1.20, a threshold that has signaled bull market peaks when the reading is lower. BCA Research suggests that this time a drop below that level could correspond to prices exceeding $200,000.

The gauge measures the complexity of the price changes over 260 days. It is a signal based on the quantification of the dimensionalities of fractals, which are patterns that appear at various scales and are often observed in nature and mathematics. In financial markets, fractal analysis identifies recurring patterns and informs predictions.

A higher fractal dimension complexity means difficulty interpreting price trends, making market movements more unpredictable. A declining reading suggests that price patterns are becoming more predictable and stable. Low readings can represent complacency in the market, a false sense of security among traders that prices could continue to move in a particular direction. Such a situation is usually seen at bull market tops.

“Despite bitcoin’s election-fueled rally, its 260-day complexity is not yet close to the 1.2 level that would signal the start of another crypto winter,” the BCA Research team led by Chief Strategist Dhaval Joshi said in a Nov. 14 note to clients. “Hence, while we should expect a near-term retracement, bitcoin’s structural uptrend is intact with an ultimate destination of $200,000+.”

The team said the value of bitcoin’s network effect has substantial upside and as global wealth rises, the value of the network effect of both gold and bitcoin will also increase.

“In the case of both gold and bitcoin, their network effect comes from the collective belief that they are the non-confiscable assets to own in a fiat monetary system. And that certain portion of total wealth must be held in these non-confiscable assets as an insurance against hyperinflation, banking system failure, or state expropriation.”

The post Bitcoin Near a Record High Might Be Just Half the Journey as BCA Research Signals $200K appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The lack of new measures and announcements of new stimulus at a Chinese briefing today pared hopes of a long-drawn stimulus package – one that contributed to a bitcoin run in the past few weeks.

A September rally in Chinese stocks fizzled Tuesday as traders returned to the market following a weeklong holiday, with bitcoin (BTC) sliding in early Asian hours as broader market investors reacted.

Bitcoin dropped as low as $62,000 in late U.S. hours Monday before rising to $62,700 in early Asian hours to pare nearly all gains over a seven-day period. Major tokens Solana’s SOL (SOL), ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and BNB (BNB) fell up to 4%, paring Monday’s gains.

The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid fund tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, lost 2.18%.

Investors widely expected the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to outline more stimulus measures in a Tuesday briefing after the Chinese Golden Week holiday, adding to the government’s September plans of rate cuts and liquidity support for the market to rile up a slowing economy.

There were expectations of a big rally when Chinese markets re-opened on Tuesday, part of which could spill over to crypto markets.

However, the briefing’s general lack of urgency and specifics, and no plans for further stimulus underwhelmed investors – denting market sentiment as concerns around conflicts in the Middle East remain. At the same time, many felt an urge to take profit from the rally.

China’s premier index, the Shanghai Composite, jumped 4% after opening but fell through the day as investors digested new comments. Hong Kong’s tech-heavy Hang Seng fell nearly 7%, reversing gains from Monday and Friday.

Some analysts previously warned of a late September rally having legs to keep the momentum going, as the latest stimulus appeared sanguine compared to the 2015 cycle, which buoyed asset prices for a longer period.

As such, NDRC Chairman Zheng Shanjie described China’s economy as “stable” and showing “progress,” saying fundamentals are unchanged and there’s confidence in meeting its economic growth target of around 5%, per Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, crypto traders continue to look to Federal Reserve meetings scheduled for later this week for clues on further positioning. The agency is expected to release FOMC minutes and key economic figures from August that track growth.

The post Bullish Bitcoin Hopes Dented as China Eases Stimulus Plans appeared first on Crypto Insider.

Even with a 3-5% cost to convert [stablecoin] USDT into equities, the potential upside of 50-70% in China’s stocks makes this a strategic move, one observer said.

China’s battered stock market has experienced a resurgence since late powered by the barrage of stimulus by Beijing.

But this surge could be sucking capital out of the crypto market, capping the upside in bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, and other Asian markets, according to observers.

“The current surge in Chinese stocks, driven by the stimulus package and investor activity during the national holiday week, represents a calculated risk-reward trade for savvy investors. Even with a 3-5% cost to convert [stablecoin] USDT into equities, the potential upside of 50-70% makes this a strategic move,” Danny Chong, co-founder of multi-staking protocol and co-founder of Digital Assets Association Singapore, told CoinDesk in an email.

Beijing Bazooka is also drawing capital from other Asian equity markets. “We are trimming our long positions across Asia to fund China purchases,” Eric Yee, senior portfolio manager at Atlantis Investment Management in Singapore, told Bloomberg.

Since Sept. 24, the Shanghai Composite Index has jumped over 20%, reaching its highest since May 2023. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which constitutes Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, has jumped over 25%, according to data source TradingView.

The rally follows stimulus announcements that included interest rate cuts, liquidity support for stocks, banking system capital injections, and a promise to support property prices.

The enormous stimulus, estimated to be over 7.5 trillion yuan (CNY), has been widely perceived as uber-bullish for bitcoin and other risk assets. Bitcoin, however, remains flat-lined at around $64,000 in the wake of the China stimulus, extending a six-month-long consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000.

Temporary shift

According to Chong, the capital shift is likely to be temporary and investors will eventually refocus on cryptocurrencies.

“This shift is likely to be temporary. Once the peak of the recent upward move in Chinese equities stabilizes, we can expect to see a redeployment of capital back into crypto. This is a prime example of the maturing mindset of investors who are willing to move across asset classes to optimize their returns,” Chong said.

Traditional market analysts believe Bejing’s latest stimulus falls short of addressing the real economic issues and may not lead to a long-lasting rally in Chinese stocks.

“Looking beyond the near-term sentiment boost, the effectiveness of the measures could fade unless some fundamental issues are addressed. The key one is fixing damaged balance sheets – especially those of the banks. Until that happens, any attempts to boost borrowing and leveraged risk-taking are likely to fail,” TS Lombard said in a note to clients on Oct. 2.

The firm added that the latest measures are only 1.5% of China’s gross domestic product, as opposed to 32% in 2008 and 22% in 2015-16, saying the spillovers from the stimulus are unlikely to be large this time.

BCA Research voiced a similar opinion last week, saying the rally in China’s stocks may not have legs.

The post Bitcoin, Asian Equities May Be Losing Capital to China Stocks appeared first on Crypto Insider.

PLUS: AI tokens not moving despite a $6.6 billion fundraise from OpenAI.

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) continued in the red at the start of Asian trading hours Thursday as the market withstood another sell-off.

BTC is flat, trading above $61,100, while ETH is down 4% and trading at $2,390. Crypto markets took a hit from Tuesday night after Irani airstrikes on Israel, which the latter has vowed to retaliate, in a move that has dented a rally in risk assets, including bitcoin.

However, whales continue to accumulate bitcoin at unprecedented rates despite the macro environment and market dullness, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju said in an X post.

Whales colloquially refer to influential entities that hold largest amounts of any asset – and on-chain data shows new bitcoin whales are making sizeable purchases in anticipation of a bull run ahead.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, was down over 3% as investors continue to sell most major cryptocurrencies.

Outflows from the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued with $91.76 million in outflow during the Wednesday U.S. trading day. Ether ETFs experienced the opposite, with inflows of $14.45 million, breaking a two-day streak of outflow.

XRP plunged more than 10% in the past 24 hours after the U.S. SEC said on Wednesday that it is appealing a court ruling restricting its ability to regulate cryptocurrency markets. The SEC will ask the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to review a July 2023 decision that the XRP token sold by Ripple Labs on public exchanges did not meet the legal definition of a security.

Memecoin mog (MOG), the second-largest cat-themed token behind popcat (POPCAT), saw little price movement after getting an automated mention from Republican candidate Donald Trump’s X account. Trump’s account seems to be sending a reply to any account that liked his tweet.

A Polymarket market tracking Trump’s mention of the word “mog” – or related adjectives – before December 31 was unchanged at 13% of “yes” votes, leading to some drama among voters.

Elsewhere in the market, LDO, the native token of non-custodial staking solution Lido, is down nearly 9%, following Ether’s decline.

Artificial Intelligence tokens are also not moving, despite an announcement from OpenAI that it had raised $6.6 billion at a valuation of $157 billion.

CoinGecko data shows that the category, which includes (NEAR), {{TAO}}, and (ICP) is down 1.8%. Worldcoin, which was founded by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, but has no formal ties otherwise to OpenAI, is down 4%.

The post Bitcoin Flat Near $61K as Whales Continue to Accumulate; XRP Down 10% as SEC Appeals Case appeared first on Crypto Insider.

Crypto market capitalization dropped 5% on average as Middle East tensions flared up late Monday, denting growth in risk assets.

Futures tied to major tokens saw over $450 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours as a bitcoin (BTC) plunge led to losses among major tokens, with some falling as much as 8%.

CoinGlass data shows that bitcoin traders betting on higher prices lost over $122 million, while bets on ether (ETH) lost nearly $100 million. Smaller alternative tokens (altcoins) recorded over $85 million in liquidations — the highest such figures since July — with memecoin pepe (PEPE) an unusually high $10 million in liquidations.

A liquidation occurs when an exchange forcefully closes a trader’s leveraged position due to the trader’s inability to meet the margin requirements. Large-scale liquidations can indicate market extremes, like panic selling or buying. A cascade of liquidations might suggest a market turning point, where a price reversal could be imminent due to an overreaction in market sentiment.

Global equities and risk assets such as bitcoin took a hit Tuesday as Iran launched missiles on key Israeli locations, with the latter threatening retaliation in the coming days. BTC slid to as low as $60,300 in its worst start to a historically bullish month late Tuesday, before recovering above $61,500 in Asian trading hours Wednesday.

The drop caused pain for futures traders, who took on their biggest losses since early August.

The data shows that nearly 86% of all futures bets were bullish. Traders were positioning for higher prices in the weeks ahead as October traditionally favors BTC, with only two negative months since 2013.

Market conditions in the past few weeks, including global monetary policies and U.S. political support, indicated a continued bullish trend, with some traders targeting $70,000 for BTC in the coming weeks.

The post Bitcoin Plunge Causes $450M in Bullish Crypto Bets Liquidated appeared first on Crypto Insider.

A move above the August high of $65,200 will invalidate the bearish lower highs pattern, analyst at Bitfinex said.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has rallied 16% since testing lows under $54,000 early this month. A bullish revival, however, is not yet confirmed, according to analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.

In a note shared with CoinDesk Tuesday, analysts said the cryptocurrency needs to smash the August high of $65,200 to confirm the end of a prolonged downtrend, characterized by lower price highs since March.

“BTC is now within touching distance of the Aug. 25 top of $65,200. The reason this level is important is because since the all-time high of $73,666 was reached on March 14th, BTC has still not managed to eclipse a single high before a local/new bottom was formed. This qualifies for the technical definition of a downtrend,” analysts said, explaining why $65,200 is the level to beat for the bulls.

The record high of over $73,000 reached on March 14, followed by the March 20 high of $60,780 and the subsequent lower highs and lower lows are represented by the falling trendline on the chart above.

“This implies that the August 25th local high at $65,200 before our September 6th local bottom holds a lot of significance from a higher time frame perspective,” analysts at Bitfinex noted.

In other words, a convincing move above the August high would confirm the end of the interim downtrend and a resumption of the broader uptrend from the October 2023 lows under $30,000.

The recent Fed rate cut, large stimulus announcement by China and the return of risk appetite to broader financial markets favor a move above $65,200.

One reason to be cautious is the flattening of the cumulative volume delta indicator since prices rose past $63,500 over the weekend, per data tracked by Coinalyze. It’s a sign of a slowdown in the spot market buying. The global cumulative volume delta indicator measures the difference between buying and selling volumes across centralized cryptocurrency exchanges over time.

“It is now entirely possible that the price could form a new range near current prices and consolidate for a period, as we have seen following similar previous price rallies which have been initially prompted by spot buying, but then is followed by perpetual and futures markets activity. Another cause for caution is that spot market buying has slowed. This is evident in the Figure below where we can see the spot cumulative volume delta indicator flattening out once the price moved past $63,500,” analysts told CoinDesk.

The post Bitcoin Needs to Top $65.2K to Break Downtrend: Bitfinex appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The floating yields on the bitcoin-based LBTC token are from pools that went live on Wednesday. There’s also a fixed-yield option of an annualized 10%.

eFi platform Pendle on Wednesday started offering pools with variable yields of as high as 45% on a bitcoin (BTC)-backed token in a move that expands the product’s fundamentals.

The offering, which can also provide fixed yields of an annualized 10%, allows users to deposit LBTC, a liquid-staking token issued by restaking startup Lombard, in a Pendle pool made by Ethereum layer-2 network Corn. Data shows the pool has attracted over $13 million in user deposits since going live. It matures on Dec. 26.

“We’ve seen major use cases with fixed yield for ETH, and we’re aiming to replicate the same success with BTC as well,” CEO TN Lee told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “It’s going to be a busy few weeks for us as we roll out new pools and launches.”

Pendle’s approach is to divide investments into a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, such as Compound or Aave, into two: the principle put up by the investor and the yield expected to be earned on that position in the form of token rewards. The split into a principal token (PT) and a yield token (YT) that can traded on the open market creates the high yields possible on Pendle’s pools.

Users can buy YT with LBTC, giving them increased exposure to the underlying yield and points from LBTC and Corn until maturity, at which point the YT will be worth zero. If they forego those rewards, they can elect to receive either the fixed yield or the floating yield, which comprises the points that can be monetized and future tokens that will be airdropped to LBTC holders.

Lombard is a restaking service that converts wrapped bitcoin (WBTC) to a Lombard Bitcoin (LBTC) token that can be used in DeFi applications to capture yield. Corn, another startup, is a network that uses bitcoin as the main token to pay usage fees.

Unwrapping the jargon: Liquid staking is a service that allows users to stake their crypto assets and receive a new token in exchange. Layer 2s are blockchains focusing on a specific use case atop a broader service blockchain. DeFi refers to using automated smart contracts to provide financial services, such as lending and borrowing to users. A pool can be considered a digital locker to store assets and earn returns, similar to bank accounts.

Pendle’s PENDLE tokens are up 11% in the past 24 hours, CoinGecko data shows, beating a 2% rise in bitcoin.

The post Bitcoin Yields as High as 45% on Offer in Pendle’s New Pools appeared first on Crypto Insider.

The rise in crypto volatility has been accompanied by increased market participation in the bitcoin market, Kaiko said.

The bitcoin (BTC) market reached unprecedented activity in the first eight months of 2024, surpassing the record notional trading volume seen during the bull market of 2021.

The cumulative trading volume or the dollar value of the number of BTC bought and sold on centralized exchanges amounted to $2.874 trillion in the first eight months, according to Paris-based data provider Kaiko.

That’s nearly 20% higher than the volume of $2.424 billion registered in the first eight months of 2021 and the highest since 2012.

“The rise in crypto volatility has been accompanied by increased market participation, at least in the bitcoin market,” Kaiko said in the weekly report, discussing the record-setting trading volume.

Data from charting platform TradingView show bitcoin’s 10-day realized or historical volatility surged to an annualized 100% in April as strong inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations for Fed rate cuts drove the cryptocurrency’s price to record highs above $70,000.

The volatility picked up again early last month as concerns about the U.S. economy and the unwinding of the yen carry trade destabilized risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The post Bitcoin Trading Volume Surged to $2.8T in January to August Period appeared first on Crypto Insider.

If Kamala Harris wins, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $30K, the report said.

Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach new highs later this year if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election in November, and the cryptocurrency could hit $90,000 by the fourth quarter, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday.

If Kamala Harris wins the election, the largest crypto by market cap is expected to break its current floor around the $50,000 level and could test the $30,000-$40,000 range, the report said.

The broker noted that Trump has been very vocal about making America the “bitcoin and crypto capital of the world,” and has mentioned digital assets at every policy speech he has made.

Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Nashville conference in July called for the U.S. to be a bitcoin mining powerhouse, for the appointment of a crypto friendly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman, the formation of a national strategic bitcoin stockpile and a crypto advisory council to the President.

Conversely, crypto has not even been mentioned in any of Harris’s speeches, the report noted.

Bernstein said the crypto market has been faced with two significant headwinds for the past three years, macro and regulatory.

“After the last three years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring the users bank to financial products on the blockchain,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.

“Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade,” the report added.

The post Bitcoin Could Hit $90K by Year End if Trump Becomes President Again: Bernstein appeared first on Crypto Insider.